Orioles Finalize 25-man Roster

Originally posted at the Orioles Evaluation:

The Orioles finalized their opening day roster today with a couple of surprises.

Nick Markakis (pictured left), the organization's best prospect, made the 25-man roster and appears to be the everyday starter in LF. This will make things interesting this season as Luis Matos and Corey Patterson will now compete for one spot at centerfield. Jeff Conine, Kevin Millar and Javy Lopez will now battle for two spots, at DH and at 1B.

Sendy Rleal (pronounced Rey-ahl) made the last spot in the 'pen. He beat out other veterans such as John Halama and Eddy Rodriguez. Earlier in the week, Jim Brower was added to the 40-man roster and will work with Leo Mazzone for the second straight season.

On the bench, Raul Chavez beat out youngster Eli Whiteside as the team's third catcher. No arguments there. I'm sure Whiteside will be up later in the year following a DFA notice for Mr. Chavez.

In troubling and yet unsurprising news, David Newhan is still on our roster. He's not a very good fielder, hitter and is no longer the best pinch running option now that Patterson/Matos is on the bench. What's going on here? I think Brandon Fahey might see time once we cut ties with Newhan for good mid-season.

Verdict: 2/5 stars

I'm not a big fan of rushing prospects when it means that they will be completely skipping a level in the minors. I think it would be better for Markakis, and for Rleal, to spend two weeks in Ottawa before making it to the show. All it does is prove that they do belong in the Majors and that guys like Matos, Patterson and Halama don't.

This isn't exactly a bad decision, but I would have handled it differently. I can't exactly be annoyed to watch Markakis bat everyday for the O's.

Sendy!

Sorry, I've been busy and this has been put in the back of my mind. Here's an interesting article by the AP:

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- With every impressive appearance, with every day that reliever Todd Williams continues to nurse injuries, right-hander Sendy Rleal inches closer to a spot in the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen.

Rleal pitched a scoreless inning yesterday in the Orioles' 12-4 victory over the Washington Nationals, lowering his spring ERA to 1.29 in seven innings over six outings.

His performance left Sam Perlozzo again contemplating taking Rleal, a pitcher who has never pitched above Double-A, north for the April 3 opener.

"Sendy did good," Perlozzo said. "I've seen him better, but Sendy hasn't backed off and he hasn't gone down in my book."

Rleal's changeup frustrated Eastern League hitters at Bowie in 2005, when he went 4-4 with 16 saves and a 2.04 ERA in 56 games. He allowed runs in only 10 games and held opposing batters to a .181 batting average.

"I can throw it anytime, any count," Rleal said. "It doesn't matter if it's left-hander or right-hander, whether it's 2-2 or 3-2. It's my best pitch."

His changeup is also a pitch that is complemented by his total repertoire, in a guessing game designed to fool hitters.

"I try to make the batter chase it, whatever I throw," Rleal said. "When I'm throwing a fastball, I want him to think it's a changeup. When I'm throwing a changeup, I want him to think it's a fastball."

Friday's outing was Rleal's first caught by Ramon Hernandez, one of several players to rejoin the Orioles from the World Baseball Classic. Outfielder Luis Matos and catcher/first baseman Javy Lopez also returned to Fort Lauderdale after their teams were eliminated.

Rleal relieved left-hander John Halama in the fourth, gave up a bloop single to center to Daryle Ward, then promptly got out of the jam, striking out Marlon Anderson with a high fastball and getting Mike DiFelice to bounce into an inning-ending double play.

Rleal came into camp under the radar, a longshot to make the roster for the April 3 opener. But his confidence has served him well.

"I know I can pitch," he said. "All I need is confidence, and my confidence gets better all the time."

Perlozzo was counting on Williams, who appeared in 72 games last year, to anchor the right side of the bullpen. But Williams has battled a sore arm and been slowed by a tight right calf.

Williams could start throwing again by next week, but Perlozzo acknowledges that his injuries could complicate the bullpen picture.

Rleal, 25, is getting personal attention from Dennis Martinez, the former Oriole great who's in camp as a special instructor. Martinez's locker is next to Rleal's, giving the rookie an opportunity to be mentored by the winningest Latin American pitcher in major league history.

With Perlozzo impressed, I would be very surprised if Rleal (how you pronounce this, I still have no idea) doesn't make it up to Baltimore before the All-Star Break. Another possible arm in the bullpen appears to be NRI John Halama. As of now, here's my guess on how the opening day 'pen will shape up:

Chris Ray (Closer)
LaTroy Hawkins (Setup)
Tim Byrdak (Lefty)
Todd Williams (Middle Relief)
John Halama (Long Relief/6th Starter)

And one possibly two more pitchers picked out of the mix of: Ricky Bottalico, Eddy Rodriguez, Vic Darensbourg, Jim Brower, and Eric DuBose. I'm sure I'm missing someone there, but that's the general list.

Free Agency Challenge

This is the 2005-2006 Free Agency Challenge, where Ben Hyman, Ben Joffe, Hank Nathan and myself will make predictions on the top free agents, and where they will end up. All submissions were due on 11/23, and cannot be changed afterwards. Possible choices for a player involve a team or announcing their retirement. If a player doesn't sign by the end of free agency (start of the season), but does not announce his retirement, then no one will receive a point. For each correct guess, each participant will receive one point. The most points wins.

This table will update throughout the off-season as top free agents sign, with a tally of the scores at the bottom of the table.

UPDATE: It appears that I've won the challenge now as no one else can get more than eleven correct and I currently sit at twelve.

WS in the table stands for Win Shares.

Player	Pos	WS	Dan	Hyman	Joffe	Hank	Actual
Brian Giles	OF	35	SLN	LAN	SDN	BOS	SDN
Rafael Furcal	SS	27	CHN	ATL	CHN	CHN	LAN
Johnny Damon	OF	25	BOS	NYA	BOS	BOS	NYA
Roger Clemens	SP	25	HOU	HOU	Retire	HOU
Paul Konerko	1B	24	CHA	CHA	ANA	CHA	CHA
Juan Encarnacion	OF	19	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	SLN
Mark Grudzielanek	2B	18	BOS	SLN	SLN	NYN	KCA
Kenny Rogers	SP	18	KCA	CLE	CIN	NYA	DET
Bill Mueller	3B	18	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	LAN
Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	CHN	SEA	NYA	SDN	BAL
Joe Randa	3B	17	LAN	KCA	SDN	KCA	PIT
Rich Aurilia	SS	16	CIN	FLO	SEA	TOR	CIN
Kenny Lofton	OF	16	NYA	CHN	FLO	PHI	LAN
Billy Wagner	RP	16	NYN	PHI	NYN	NYN	NYN
Kevin Millwood	SP	15	CLE	BAL	CLE	ANA	TEX
Jarrod Washburn	SP	15	DET	SFN	ANA	TEX	SEA
Brad Ausmus	C	15	HOU	SDN	HOU	HOU	HOU
Bengie Molina	C	15	NYN	BAL	BAL	NYA	TOR
Jacque Jones	OF	15	SDN	SDN	SDN	SLN	CHN
Paul Byrd	SP	14	BAL	TEX	BAL	BAL	CLE
Matt Lawton	OF	14	KCA	TBA	NYN	LAN	SEA
Jeff Weaver	SP	13	ANA	BAL	ANA	SFN	ANA
Alex Gonzalez (FLO)	SS	13	ATL	CHN	FLO	ATL	BOS
Todd Jones	RP	13	FLO	DET	BOS	CLE	DET
Mike Piazza	C	13	MIN	MIN	MIN	BAL	SDN
Olmedo Saenz	1B	12	LAN	SDN	Retire	SDN	LAN
B.J. Ryan	RP	12	PHI	NYN	NYA	NYA	TOR
Abraham Nunez	3B	12	PHI	NYN	LAN	SLN	PHI
Jamie Moyer	SP	12	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA
A.J. Burnett	SP	12	TOR	TOR	TOR	TOR	TOR
Kyle Farnsworth	RP	11	BAL	ATL	ATL	ATL	NYA
Royce Clayton	SS	11	FLO	CIN	Retire	FLO	WAS
Esteban Loaiza	SP	11	TEX	SLN	TEX	NYN	OAK
Ramon Hernandez	C	10	BAL	NYN	NYN	NYN	BAL
Bob Howry	RP	10	CHN	CHN	DET	CLE	CHN
Kevin Millar	1B	10	MIN	BAL	BOS	MIN	BAL
Mark Sweeney	1B	10	NYN	NYN	SDN	SFN	SFN
Tom Gordon	RP	10	NYN	BOS	NYA	BAL	PHI
Scott Eyre	RP	9	CHN	CHN	CHN	CHN	CHN
Jason Johnson	SP	9	SEA	SEA	DET	DET	CLE
Roberto Hernandez	RP	9	SFN	WAS	HOU	NYN	PIT
Hector Carrasco	RP	9	WAS	ATL	OAK	WAS	ANA
Trevor Hoffman	RP	8	ATL	ATL	NYN	BOS	SDN
Ugueth Urbina	RP	8	NYA	TBA	BAL	PHI
Brett Tomko	SP	8	SFN	MIN	COL	ANA	LAN
Bob Wickman	RP	8	TOR	TOR	CLE	Retire	CLE
Matt Morris	SP	7	TEX	TEX	SEA	TEX	SFN
Nomar Garciaparra	SS	5	BOS	LAN	BAL	CHN	LAN
Octavio Dotel	RP	2	SLN	NYA	SLN	SLN	NYA
Kevin Brown	SP	0	SLN	TBA	BAL	ANA	Retire
TOTAL POINTS			12	10	8	7
MAX POINTS			13	11	10	8

2006 Draft, already

Over at Scout.com, they have a projected 2006 first-year player draft (it doesn't happen for real until early June). The O's have the 9th pick, and here's who they say we'll get:

Chris Marrero, 3B, R/R, 6’3, 205, Monsignor Pace HS, Opa Locka, FL

Let’s play a game. Name the last third baseman the Orioles drafted who became a regular in Baltimore's lineup for consecutive years. Give up? Would you believe it’s Cal Ripken, Jr., who was taken in the second round of the 1978 draft? And that really doesn’t even count because he wound up at shortstop. Before him you have to go back to 1970 when the Orioles took Doug DeCinces in round three. That’s a long 3B drought. This year they may have an answer in Chris Marrero, a gifted athlete with a classic ballplayer’s build and the baseball skills to match. On defense, he is quick with good hands and a strong, accurate throwing arm. At the plate he is already a disciplined hitter. He waits for his pitch and isn’t afraid of taking a walk. When he gets his pitch he can deposit it anywhere from one foul pole to the other. Before I saw him, I read several reports that compared him to Alex Rodriguez. I never saw A-Rod play as an amateur, but the physical similarities are definitely there. Marrero will be a keeper and a good bet to fill the Orioles' need for a legitimate 3B prospect.

This pick would make sense since the Orioles have almost nothing, prospect-wise, in the infield (Brandon Snyder, Brandon Fahey, and Tripper Johnson with the last two being barely anything in terms of prospects). Miguel Tejada has voiced his concern about staying with the club, Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora will likely be free agents in the semi-near future. The O's do need a hitter in the draft, especially in the infield, and with a great talent like Marrero's, this isn't one to pass up.

Williams' Charges Dropped

TAMPA, Florida (AP) -- Prosecutors dropped drunken driving charges on Monday against a Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher who lives in Land O-Lakes, north of Tampa.

Todd Williams was arrested after authorities said he caused a three-car crash in November.

He was driving a 2003 Ford Escape that slammed into the back of two cars that were stopped at a traffic light on a major Tampa thoroughfare.

A Breathalyzer test showed Williams had no alcohol in his blood, but he was charged with DUI with property damage after failing a field sobriety test.

Tests showed he had legal prescription drugs in his system, and prosecutors say his attorney showed he likely failed the field sobriety test because he had injured an ankle in the crash.

Williams made his major league debut in 1995. He went five-and-five last season with a 3.3 ERA while recording one save in 76 and a third innings pitched.

Spotlight of the Week: Ben Broussard

This week's spotlight will cover Indians' 1B Ben Broussard.

Background:
Broussard was drafted in the 2nd round in 1999 at 22 years of age, and quickly established himself as a solid player in the Minors with successful 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 seasons throughout the Indians' Minor League system. During his 5 Minor League seasons, he hit 62 HRs and drove in 213 runs. At 26, Broussard got his chance at the big leagues in 2002 recording 112 ABs for Cleveland. He hit poorly (.241-.292-.384), but showed enough talent to stick around. He started the 2003 season struggling at AAA Buffalo, but was recalled back to the show (thanks Crash). He struggled once again, at a position where a good bat is essentially. He hit .249-.312-.443, but knocked 16 balls over the outfield fence. That power is again what gave him another chance in 2004, which would become his breakout season. Broussard recorded 33 VORP in only 418 ABs for Cleveland in 2004 due to his good walk rate and his continued solid power. He ranked 6th among American League 1Bs as he entered his prime. Things were looking up for Broussard, and the Indians in general.

2005:
Well, the Indians kept going up, but Broussard came back down to reality. The power remained (if not slightly increased), but his OBP dropped nearly .065 points, mainly due to his lack of plate discipline. His K:BB rate raised from 1.82 in 2004 to 3.06 in 2005. Despite his struggles, the Indians' record soared. Broussard became one of the weak links on a team who could certainly hit, but a player who doesn't contribute with the bat nor with the glove (his defense is adequate at best), why keep him around?

2006 Outlook:
This is the make or break season for Broussard. If he doesn't get back to at least close to his 2004 numbers, he'll likely lose his starting spot for good and will be considered somewhat of a bust. Ryan Garko, the Indians' next version of Travis Hafner, is just about ready and with a great spring, he could steal the starting job. Interestingly, the Indians have three good hitting 1B/DH types, but none can really play defense (Broussard, Garko and Travis Hafner). Broussard projects as a role-player who can provide good power off of the bench. My guess is that he'll record about 8 VORP this season as he loses his job half-way through the year. His plate discipline won't be good enough along with his glove to make that plus-power worthwhile.

Matos Avoids Arbitration

Originally posted at the Orioles Evaluation:

Luis Matos agreed to a one-year contract, worth $1.625 M, to avoid arbitration.

Matos, 27 in 2006, has had his success and his failures in Baltimore during his six seasons with the Birds. He's a career .260-.316-.379 hitter, with a very good fielding and (despite his raw stolen base numbers) above-average speed. The main problem with Matos, during his tenure in Baltimore, is health. He has never had more than 439 ABs during a season, and has never played in more than 121 Gs in one campaign. Luis can be a decent starting centerfielder or a good role player off of the bench. He'll have a shot to get the starting nod in center, or more doubtfully in left, this season. In any case, if he plays well, he will play.

Verdict: 3/5

This contract is about right for Matos, a player with a questionable past and a questionable future. He doesn't have a current starting job, but will likely rack up 200+ ABs, even with a good year by Corey Patterson. Matos, who averages 24 SBs per 162 G played, will also bring speed to the bench, which could use some beyond David Newhan.

The bottom line is that Matos won't be a great player, nor will he totally fall off the face of the Earth. A steady glove and speed will keep him at least on the Major league roster and his bat (and perhaps more importantly health) will be the key to how much more playing time he will get.

Fantasy Baseball in Question

Maury Brown, once again, has written a very interesting article. This time he discusses MLB's attempt to possibly destroy small fantasy baseball leauges. That might be a bit of an extreme summary, but this is an important debate that's going on between CBC and MLB. If you're at all interested in law or in fantasy sports, then this article is worth reading. This story isn't exactly new news, as Andy Katz would put it, but I haven't read a story that goes as in-depth as this one does on the history of the subject. Also check out the cartoon (click to enlarge).

Quiz

Here are a few questions to quiz yourself on and waste some time (answers at the bottom):

1. Before Mike Maroth in 2003, who was the last pitcher to lose 20 games in one season?
2. There are four players who have played for both the Orioles and Diamondbacks and played for at least one of them last season. Name them.
3. From Baseball's beginning to 2004, what percentage of players in MLB were born in the Dominican Republic? Either: 0.5%, 2.5%, or 5%.
4. Tony Bautista has hit more than 30 HRs and struck out less than 100 times in a season in how many years? Either: 0, 1 or 2 years.
   
5. True or False: You can fit, with a lot of elbow-grease, two Bernie Castros inside of one Walter Young.

Thanks for taking this mindless quiz. Here are the answers:

(1. Brian Kingman, OAK, 1980; 2. Midre Cummings, Buddy Groom, Kerry Lightenberg, Tim Worrell; 3. 2.5%; 4. 2 years; 5. True! )

Spotlight of the Week: Jason Lane

This is the spotlight of the week where I will select a player at random and dissect his career and future.

This week I'll cover Jason Lane, RF for the Houston Astros:

Background:
Lane was drafted in the 6th round of the 1999 first-year player draft out of USC. He had a successful Minor League career and progressed quickly (you need to when you start out at 22) by reaching the Majors at 25 years of age in 2002. His career statline reads an impressive .295-.373-.521 through four Minor League seasons. He showed good all-around tools with the ability to hit for average (.316 at AA), get on-base (.407 at AA), hit homeruns (38 at AA), and to steal bases (20 at A+). In 69 ABs in 2002 for Houston, Lane hit .290-.375-.536, which was especially impressive since it nearly mirrored his Minor League numbers to the dot. Lane went back to the Minors in 2003 after the successful September callup, but only had 27 ABs for Houston that season. At 27, 2004 was Lane's first full-season in the Majors, platooning in the outfield with Richard Hidalgo. He was solid, but not overly impressive, hitting .272-.348-.463 in only 136 ABs.

2005:
Lane broke out in 2005, hitting 26 homers and 34 doubles for the Astros. His power was there, but his speed (only 6 steals) and ability to get on base (.316 OBP) weren't. He's proven that, given time, he can be a legit Major League player (especially important as he is about to enter arbitration).

2006 Outlook:
A starting job for Lane is probably a given, as the Astros have no one else to challenge him in right field (if Bagwell comes back and starts then he might platoon with Preston Wilson, otherwise he should start). He will probably regress towards his career averages by losing some of his power but also increasing his OBP. He has a good level swing, which lends itself well towards future seasons. In the future he projects as a starting outfielder, who will probably eventually need to move to LF or even to 1B (due to his average throwing arm and defensive ability). He's 29, so he needs to put up numbers now before it's late. If he has a lackluster 2006, it's possible that he won't reclaim his starting job in 2007 without at least a challenge (Eli Iorg, Hunter Pence take note). In all likelihood, Lane will have similar numbers and should play for the Astros for another three or so seasons, starting most of his games there.